At the Heart of Risk: The Evolving Role of Actuaries from Natural Catastrophes to Neural Networks

Actuaries have long applied mathematics and statistics to manage uncertainty across insurance and investments. Today, climate volatility and AI adoption are accelerating the profession’s evolution. This session uses two distinct but connected lenses. First, a natural catastrophe case study focusing on a traditional actuarial practice area. The speakers will focus on Cyclone Ditwah in Sri Lanka to explore protection gaps, disaster risk financing and what “resilience” requires from actuaries. The second presentation will consider an evolving actuarial practice. The speaker will focus on a practical look at how AI is reshaping pricing, underwriting, claims, reserving, capital and enterprise risk management, and the governance and control needed for responsible use.

Localising Global Best Practices: Building Back with Resilience

Cyclone Ditwah had a devastating impact on Sri Lanka, exposing the scale of the prevailing insurance gap, with less than 5% of damages insured. The session will explore best practices from several jurisdictions and consider what fits the local context. 

Actuaries can support recovery by translating a complex loss event into practical financial responses. This includes quantifying the loss experience and the drivers of uncertainty using frequency and severity thinking to inform fair premiums and sustainable coverage. Actuaries can also strengthen claims readiness and recovery funding by supporting mechanisms such as national level arrangements to assist underinsured and uninsured households, and by designing pricing approaches that reflect catastrophe risk more explicitly. Further, actuaries can help close protection gaps by developing products and coverage structures that better match how losses arise. For example, the post-event discussion highlighted coverage limitations such as landslides not being included in some natural peril covers. While traditional actuarial skills play a critical role in insurer resilience we could also leverage them in building a climate resilient Sri Lanka.

Actuaries in the Age of AI: Evolving Roles, New Risks, and Responsible Innovation

The actuary is increasingly expected to move beyond model production towards the governance and stewardship of intelligent systems: assessing whether AI models are fit for purpose, understanding their limitations, challenging their outputs, monitoring unintended consequences, and ensuring that their use is consistent with regulatory requirements, ethical principles, and sound risk management. In this environment, actuarial value lies not only in technical proficiency, but in the ability to combine quantitative expertise with judgement, governance discipline, and a clear understanding of financial impact. The evolving relationship between actuarial science and AI therefore reflects a broader transformation in the profession itself. This changing landscape offers actuaries a timely opportunity to lead at the intersection of innovation, risk governance, and trust, ensuring that the use of AI is both forward-looking and responsibly grounded, considering the growing relevance of AI across the financial and risk-related sectors.