Using Catastrophe and Climate Models to Manage Flood Risk: A Brazil Case Study

Catastrophe models and climate models can be combined to enhance flood risk management by providing both short-term and long-term insights. Catastrophe models provide an assessment of today’s risk by simulating the financial and physical impacts of specific flood events based on current hazard, exposure, and vulnerability data, enabling insurers, policymakers, and emergency planners to prepare for and respond to immediate threats. Climate models, on the other hand, work with longer time horizons, projecting future changes in precipitation patterns, sea levels, and extreme weather events due to climate change. By integrating these models, stakeholders can assess how flood risks may evolve over time and develop adaptive strategies, such as improved infrastructure, land-use planning, and risk-based insurance pricing, to mitigate the increasing threat of floods. This session will present how a probabilistic Brazil flood model and a global climate risk tool can be used to improve the flood risk management in Brazil.