Integrating HAND Model and Soil Data for Flood Risk Assessment in São Paulo: Insights for the Insurance Sector

This study applies the HAND (Height Above the Nearest Drainage) model to assess flood susceptibility in the state of São Paulo, incorporating data on soil types and regional structural characteristics. The HAND model, widely used to identify areas prone to water accumulation during extreme precipitation events, estimates the relative height of the terrain in relation to the nearest drainage level. By integrating variables such as soil type and infrastructure, the risk analysis becomes more refined, as the water retention and drainage capacity of different soil types, along with the resilience of local infrastructure, are crucial factors in determining flood vulnerability. For the insurance sector, this approach offers a strategic advantage. Understanding the susceptibility of specific areas allows insurers to adjust policy pricing and coverage conditions based on detailed risk mapping, improving the accuracy of claims forecasting and optimizing portfolio management. Additionally, by identifying areas requiring investment in drainage infrastructure, insurers can collaborate with public and private sectors to reduce the risk of large-scale claims, thus supporting long-term financial sustainability.