Introduction to Natural Catastrophe Modelling

Natural Catastrophe Models are a key ingredient for the assessment of Nat Cat risk. Questions like “What losses do we expect from catastrophic events on average?” and “What losses do we need to expect in the worst case?” are becoming more and more relevant, in particular considering climate change. Natural Catastrophe Models try to answer these questions in a statistical sense, and have for many years now become an important tool for the assessment of (re-)insurance contracts. In this web session, we will give a basic introduction to Nat Cat Modelling and its applications. 

During the web session, the basic components of a Nat Cat model will be explained: Exposure data, the hazard, vulnerabilities, and the financial model. Additionally, sources of uncertainty will be discussed together with methods for quantification. After the first part, we will build our own simple Nat Cat model in a hands-on case study. Lastly, we will look in more detail at the results a model can produce and how to use them for pricing in the reinsurance context.